New Economics Papers (from NEP)
The following works presented are external working papers published to the NEP-LMA and NEP-LAB RSS feeds. This content is provided to show a wider view of research being conducted across the areas of Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages, as well as Labour Economics. Works listed may have no relation to ACLMR or the ACLMR team and are published out of academic interest only.
Labour Markets
2026-06
Crowded Career Ladders? Intra-Firm Spillovers of Raised Retirement Age
I study how delayed retirements reshape firms’ internal labor markets, leverag ing a German reform that raised women’s early retirement age by at least three years. The reform increased retention…
2026-06
Generative AI and the Redefinition of Entry-Level Software Work
Generative AI may change how firms define occupations. We study this process in software development, where large language models overlap with tasks commonly assigned to junior workers. Using the near-universe…
2026
Labor Market Consequences of Generative AI: Early Evidence from Norway
Does Generative AI displace early-career workers? We provide population-wide evidence from Norwegian administrative registers, 2015 through March 2025, exploiting the November 2022 release of ChatGPT…
2026-06
Off the Labor Supply Curve: The Zero Employer Size Wage Effect Within Large Firms
We revisit the employer size wage effect (ESWE)—arguably the most basic and influential departure from the law of one price for labor. Our main result is that this canonical fact disappears completely…
2026-06
Understanding Occupational Wage Growth
We jointly estimate growth in occupational wage premia as well as time-varying occupation-specific life-cycle profiles for Swedish workers 1996–2013. Our novel identification strategy is based…
2026-06
Beyond Exposure: Predicting AI Adoption Based on Comparative Advantage
We document and explain the gap between measures of AI exposure and measures of AI adoption in the workplace. This leads us to propose a new AI adoption index based on comparative advantage. Using the…
2026-06
Changes in Returns to Multidimensional Skills across Cohorts
While social skills have become increasingly important in the labour market, other skills may have lost relevance. Estimating these changes is challenging because skills measured before tertiary education…
2026-05
Algorithm Aversion in Prosocial Tasks: Evidence from AI-Based Performance Evaluation
How do workers respond when artificial intelligence replaces human judgment in evaluating prosocial work? Partnering with a non-profit addressing food insecurity, we recruit 1, 491 U.S. volunteers to…
2026-06
Imperfect Self-knowledge about Skills and Skill Mismatch
Why do people sort into poorly fitting occupations? This paper shows that imperfect self-knowledge about skills is an important source of skill mismatch at labor market entry. We use unique data from…
2026-06
Birthplace Urbanicity and Lifetime Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from Forced Migration Due to World War II
During and after World War II, West Germany absorbed around eight million refugees and displaced persons, including nearly two million children. This provides a natural experiment to examine whether birthplace…
2026-06
Reconciling Micro Elasticities with the Macro Decline in Labor Supply
Micro estimates of the Marshallian elasticity of labor supply are small and typically positive, whereas cross-country and time-series patterns of hours imply a strong negative relationship between wages…
2026-06
Assessing Expected Retirement Age and Working Hours of Pre-Retirees in Thailand
In Thailand, the Mandatory Retirement Age (MRA) is governed by law; however, private corporations may implement their own specific retirement thresholds. The public sector enforces an MRA of 60, but private…
2026-05
Social Connections and the Persistence of Income Across Generations
We use matched parent-child-employer-employee data from Canada, linked to detailed educational records, to quantify the contribution of social connections to employers to intergenerational income mobility.…
2026-06
Returns to Tenure: A Critical Assessment of the Evidence and Interpretation
This paper assesses the empirical evidence on returns to employer tenure. Using published studies and new illustrative estimates from British linked employer–employee payroll data, we show that…
2026
Patents, firm rents, and worker compensation: Causal evidence from quasi-random patent allocation
This paper provides new causal evidence on how patent allowances affect firms and their employees based on quasi-random assignment of patent applications to examiners. Exploiting employer-employee records…
2026-06
The effects of monetary compensation on paid volunteers: Quasi-experimental evidence from Germany
In recent decades, volunteering has expanded from completely unpaid work to the possibility of receiving a small (tax-free) monetary compensation for the activity performed, with the goal of stimulating…
2026-06-25
Rebooting Veneto’s competitiveness through productivity growth
Veneto is one of Europe’s manufacturing powerhouses, generating 9.5% of Italy’s GDP. While labour productivity growth has been slower than in peer regions since 2005, the region has maintained international…
2026-06
Do Wage Floors Increase Employment Risk for Workers with Disabilities? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases and Subminimum Wage Repeal
People with disabilities are disproportionately represented in low-wage work, raising concerns that higher wage floors may reduce their employment opportunities, particularly for workers with more severe…
2026-06
Task-Specific Technical Change and Comparative Advantage
Artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes workers’ comparative advantage by altering the tasks they perform and the skills those tasks require. We develop a dynamic task-based model to quantify the general-equilibrium…
2026
What do software developers think about the automation of their work and its limits? Findings from a large-scale international survey
This paper investigates how software developers perceive the current and future automation of their work in the context of rapidly advancing generative and agentic AI. While existing research has primarily…
2026-06
The Income Channel to Labor-Market Polarization
We study labor-market polarization by developing a framework with heterogeneous consumers, non-homothetic preferences, and endogenous labor supply a la Roy (1951). Because income-elastic sectors are intensive…
2026
Social Anxiety and Evaluative Interviews
Evaluative social interactions are pervasive in labor markets. Inequality in these settings can arise not only from how individuals are treated or perform when evaluated, but from whether they enter evaluation…
2026-06
Monopsony Power and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
This paper studies how labor market power affects the transmission of monetary policy. Using administrative U.S. Census data, we show that firms with high monopsony power—defined as those accounting…
2026-05
Persistent Effects of Early Academic Rank on Cognitive and Noncognitive Outcomes
This paper estimates the effects of early academic rank in elementary school on later cognitive and noncognitive outcomes in the context of Mexico. We use linked administrative records to compare students…
2026
Blindly Discriminating: The GI Bill and Racial Inequality
The World War II GI Bill was the largest education subsidy in US history and a cornerstone of the postwar US transition to a knowledge economy. Although formally race-blind, the program's decentralized…
2026-06
Reconfiguring India’s Qualifications Architecture: TVET Reform from the National Skills Qualification Framework to the National Credit Framework
Under what institutional conditions do qualifications frameworks become trusted mechanisms for learner progression, mobility, and labour-market signalling? This paper addresses this question for India…
2026
AI Adoption by Human Experts: Evidence from Primary Care Physicians
AI can raise productivity by extracting information from rich data, yet little is known about how experts weigh AI-generated signals against established decision-support tools. We conduct a nationwide…
2026
Foreign troops, local economies: The economic effects of US withdrawals from Germany
This paper analyzes the local economic impacts of troop deployments. We exploit variation from the historic large-scale US troop withdrawal from Germany triggered by the end of the Cold War, to estimate…
2026-06
Data-Driven Automation
We build a dynamic model of data-driven automation in which data (i) is heterogeneous and task-specific; (ii) accumulates endogenously as a byproduct of economic activity; and (iii) exhibits spillovers…
2026-06
'Nobody Wants to Work Anymore': Lifetime Labor Market Experiences and the Decline of Male LFP in the United States
Male labor force participation has declined steadily for 50 years in the United States. We show that one cause has been changes in men's beliefs about the returns to work, shaped by lifetime experiences…
2026-06
Beta for Alpha: Neural Engagement in Financial Trading
The emergence of wearable electroencephalography (EEG) technologies presents new opportunities to identify and quantify neural correlates of decision-making in real-time, financially consequential settings.…
2026
A Missed Opportunity? Labor Demand and Workforce Diversity
How do labor demand shocks affect workforce diversity in the absence of targeted diversity policies? A conceptual framework illustrates the potential trade-off between the demographic and quality composition…
2026-06
The Labor Market Effects of Regulating Platform Work: Evidence from Chile
Chile's 2022 Platform Work Law mandates firms to monitor their subcontractors' formality and establishes maximum working hours, minimum pay, and the right to collective bargaining among independent contractors.…
2026-06
Immigrant-Native Wage Gaps over Two Generations: Does the Field of Study Matter?
Although educational attainment is known to moderate immigrant-native wage gaps, the role of the field of study remains largely unexplored. Drawing on detailed data for master's graduates in Belgium (1999-2016),…
2026-06-08
Growing Downward: Persistent Inequality in Publishing in Economics
This paper documents new facts about concentration in publishing in economics. First, the profession grows downward . The number of economists grew almost sixfold since 1990, but new entrants publish…
2026-06
Long-Term and Multi-Generational Impacts of Skilled Birth Attendance
This paper examines the long-term and multi-generational benefits of skilled birth attendance (SBA), which involves having a trained midwife or doctor present at delivery to safely perform normal deliveries…
2026
Earnings dynamics through boom, crisis, and recovery: Evidence from Greece
This paper documents the evolution of labor earnings and earnings dynamics in Greece during 2002-2023 using administrative matched employer-employee data from the Greek social security system. The data…
2026-06
Characterizing the Returns to STEM: Marginal and Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects
We estimate heterogeneous returns to STEM education by leveraging relative distances to technical versus general universities in Switzerland. While individuals who choose a STEM education gain on average,…
2026
Formal Labor Market Dynamics and Development
This paper studies formal employment dynamics using linked employer–employee data from eight countries spanning a wide income range from Kenya to Chile. First, we show that formality rates increase…
2026-05
Minority Bureaucrats’ Networks and Career Progression: Evidence from the Chinese Maritime Customs Service
Do minorities benefit from social networks? In this paper, we study this question using the historical example of China’s first modern bureaucratic organization, the Chinese Maritime Customs Service.…
2026-06
Labour-Friendly Steam Power: Evidence from 19th-Century France
This study examines the two earliest national industrial censuses from mid-nineteenthcentury France and finds that the adoption of steam power was associated with both job creation and wage growth. To…
2026
Diverse Hands, Aligned Hearts: Ability and Preference Diversity in Team Production
Does diversity in ability and in mutual concern help or hurt team performance? We study a team in which efforts may be complements or substitutes. Holding mean ability and mean relational orientation…
2026-05
Sectoral Divergence in Indian Manufacturing: Organised Sector Growth and Unorganised Decline
Manufacturing-led growth remains central to India’s structural transformation, given its potential to generate large-scale employment for unskilled and semi-skilled workers transitioning out of…
2026-06
Effect of Remote Work on the Child Penalty: Evidence from the United States
We study the effect of the post-COVID expansion of remote work on the child penalty. Our empirical design proceeds in three steps: using pseudo-panels to estimate child penalties across occupations, exploiting…
2026-06
Automation and Repression
We consider a model of automation embedded in a political environment where workers can undertake a revolt (modeled as a global game), and greater inequality between capital and labor increases the likelihood…
2026-06
Identity Uncertainty
Many group identities that influence economic behavior are imperfectly observed. Individuals and institutions often conceal identity markers to limit discrimination. Yet concealment also creates uncertainty…
2026
The Smarter State? Artificial Intelligence and Modern State and Local Public Finance
This paper examines how artificial intelligence (AI) reshapes subnational public finance, largely through familiar channels observed from prior technological change. Although some effects are novel, many…
2026-05
Caring Dads? Universal Childcare, Paternity Leave, and Fathers’ Labor Supply
We study how expansions of publicly subsidized childcare affect the intra-household allocation of labor supply in early childhood, with a particular focus on fathers. Exploiting variation in the roll-out…
2026-06
From Training to Self-Employment: Evidence from Youth Agricultural Programmes in Cameroon and Madagascar
Youth employment remains a critical issue in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the impact of two large-scale governmental programmes in Cameroon and Madagascar that aim to promote self-employment…
2026-06
New U.S. Business Establishments: Surging or Stalling?
Since the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported much more rapid growth in U.S. private sector employer establishments than has the Census Bureau– the gap reached roughly 1.6 million…
2026-06-16
Flexibility Versus Security in Agency Contracts with Moral Hazard
We study agency contracts where a project owner (principal) privately learns her opportunity cost of continuing the relationship after the agent’s effort is sunk. The principalcontrols the design of…
2026-04
When Does Workplace Flexibility Help? Formal Care, Gender Norms, and Work–Care Trade-offs
We provide causal evidence on whether working from home (WFH) enables workers to balance employment and eldercare, and how formal care infrastructure and gender norms shape this relationship. Exploiting…
2026-05
De-biasing or Backlash? Confronting Prejudice Among Police Officers in India
Police officers' discretionary handling of gender-based violence (GBV) complaints is a critical barrier to justice in developing countries. We collaborate with the Madhya Pradesh Police in India to conduct…
2025-06-25
T HE E FFECTS OF D EMOGRAPHIC C HANGES AND I NTERNATIONAL M IGRATION ON E CONOMIC G ROWTH : A R EGIONAL A NALYSIS *
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the impacts of global demographic changes on GDP growth. It categorizes countries into advanced, emerging and developing economies and conducts the analysis…
2026-06
Predicting Labor Force Types
A small group of people accounts for a large majority of flows between labor market states and of spells in un- and non-employment. In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to identify those weakly…
2026-06
Labor Unions and Social Insurance
We study the labor market impacts of unions by accounting for their effects on employers' insurance provision and examine how social insurance policies, in turn, affect unionization and labor market outcomes.…
Labour Economics
2026-06-29
Early Exposure to Technology and College Major Choice
We leverage the national rollout of FIRST robotics teams across high schools and document that attending a high school with a robotics club substantially increases the likelihood that a student will go…
2026-06
Imperfect Self-knowledge about Skills and Skill Mismatch
Why do people sort into poorly fitting occupations? This paper shows that imperfect self-knowledge about skills is an important source of skill mismatch at labor market entry. We use unique data from…
2026
The Gender of Opportunity: How Gendered Job Titles Affect Job Seeker Attraction
Recruitment signals shape applicant pools. Across three studies, we examine whether genderfair (vs. generic masculine) German job titles affect application behavior and job seekers' beliefs about organizational…
2026-07
Gendered Effects of the Minimum Wage
Women are more likely than men to work in low-hours jobs, which are associated with lower hourly wages and are disproportionately impacted by minimum wage policies. To quantify the gendered effects, we…
2026
The Price of Long Hours
Earnings premiums for long hours vary across occupations, shaping gender sorting and inequality. The leading explanation emphasizes firm-side production technologies, yet hours and wages are equilibrium…
2026
When to Broaden, When to Focus: Job Search and Market Tightness
This paper investigates whether directing job search toward tight labor markets improves re-employment. Such targeting is theoretically attractive as it reduces aggregate congestion. I link Swiss unemployment…
2026-07-01
Old and new jobs: Understanding wage formation, sorting and firm behavior
This paper studies hiring and wage setting in new jobs. Using Swedish matched employer-employee data covering 1.7 million new hires, I show that entrants into occupations new to the firm have more labor…
2026-07
The Workforce Consequences of Ending Mandatory Union Fees: Evidence from Janus v. AFSCME
Public-sector unions shape how state and local governments staff and size their workforces, yet clean shocks to union power are rare. The 2018 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in Janus v. AFSCME provided…
2026
The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence from an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark: Comment
Agersnap, Jensen and Kleven (2020) study the effect of changes in welfare benefit levels on immigration in Denmark, reporting a large migration elasticity of 1.3. However, their approach reports an illdefined…
2026-06-23
Immigrant-Native Wage Gaps over Two Generations: Does the Field of Study Matter?
Although a growing number of studies highlight the moderating role of educational attainment on the wage differential between immigrants and natives, the influence of the field of study remains largely…
2026-07
The Labor Market Value of Community College Bachelor’s Degrees: Initial Evidence from a Resume Audit Study in Early Childhood Education
Community colleges are more financially, academically, and geographically accessible than four-year institutions. Yet despite most community college students intending to earn a bachelor’s degree, few…
2026-05-26
Inequality of Opportunity in South Asia: The Puzzle of Educational Gains Without Consumption Gains
More than two decades of sustained economic growth in South Asia brought significant reductions in poverty, yet inclusive social progress has remained elusive. Using a pseudo-panel approach with a large-scale…
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